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A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."